Tuesday, January 7, 2014

NOAA: 50% chance of X flares 80% M flares over next 3 days

Via http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

The NOAA forecast is below. In brief: 
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), active to major storm levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan 
Class M 80/80/80 
Class X 50/50/50 
Proton 99/99/99 PCAF 
Red

I will be updating as needed. 

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2014 Jan 07 2200 UTCJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 07/1832Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at 07/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1555Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34 pfu at 06/2200Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 07/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2692 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), active to major storm levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan Class M 80/80/80 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 99/99/99 PCAF Red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jan 237 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/012-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/15/05 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 60/25/05

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